Monday, 9 January 2012
Seven reasons not to bomb Iran
An American defense analyst has outlined several
reasons why the US administration should not
become involved in military confrontation with
Iran.
Adam Lowther, a member of the faculty at the
US Air Force's Air University, called on US
politicians to consider options before deciding on
a military attack against Iran.
1. Iran possesses what is likely the most
capable military the US has faced in
decades.
Lowther explained that Iran is not like Grenada,
Panama, Somalia, Haiti, Bosnia, Serbia,
Afghanistan or Iraq that the US invaded, adding
that in all of these examples, the US military
defeated an adversary incapable of competing
with the US.
He also noted that the Iranian military is far more
competent and capable and after watching the
war in Iraq for a decade has a good
understanding of US tactics and strategy.
The analyst said Iran's Navy is skilled in littoral
combat and may be capable of closing the Strait
of Hormuz for sufficient duration to wreak
economic havoc. The recent naval exercises by
the Iranian navy illustrate a clear strategy that
would seek to close the strait while attempting to
sink American combat vessels that enter the area.
This would result in a significant loss of
commercial shipping and cause the price of oil to
skyrocket.
2. Unlike Iraq, Iran's Army and the Iranian
Revolutionary Guards Corps will not lay
down their arms at the first sight of US
ground troops.
Lowther said that Iranian military forces watched
Afghanistan and Iraq for lessons on how to
defeat the Americans.
3. The Iranian Intelligence Ministry is
among the most competent in the world.
According to the writer, the ministry has
successfully hunted down anti-Iran elements
over the past thirty years.
4. Lebanese resistance movement of
Hezbollah can help Iran in a possible US war
on Iran.
The defense analyst stated that should the US
military attack Iran, Hezbollah, with three decades
of experience fighting the Israelis, is likely to
launch a series of counter-attacks.
5. Iran's cyber capabilities are impressive
and growing.
Lowther wrote that an attack on Iran's nuclear
infrastructure is likely to prompt a sustained
cyber-attack unlike any we have seen. It will likely
target critical data in the public and private sector
and seek to wreak havoc, shut down systems,
and destroy data.
6. The US military deserves a rest from war
after a decade of intense combat
operations.
Lowther reminded that how wars in Afghanistan
and Iraq have taken their toll on American
soldiers, their families, and the equipment they
rely on.
7. A "limited attack" on Iran will likely
escalate into a wider war, making it
difficult for the US military to rest and refit.
The expert said even a focused strike against
Iran's nuclear facilities will elicit a response well
beyond "limited" US objectives.
The author in the end once again urged the US
government to weigh all options before resorting
to military conflict against Iran.
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